ive been keeping busy as well, doing college BS and cleaning up my place. dont know what ill do tomorrow yet, probably more studying. maybe watch that king diamond fillmore concert i saw pop up on my youtube feed. if im gonna be bored at home, i might as well throw on some jams and smoke by my 2nd story window enjoying the cold front we have going. i saw The Gentlemen today, great movie i recommend it to anyone here who likes guy ritchie gangster movies
Yeah, these questions get complicated quickly, and unfortunately the noise making classes are trying to turn it into a political referendum which is creating a lot of distrust and also causing people to interpret the data through their political lense rather than dispassionately.
Without getting into the politics of it (both because I don’t want to and because of the very wise forum guidelines in that area), there are some clear facts that I think are helpful in thinking about this disease and it’s transmission.
Death Rate
- The death rate of the disease has been widely discussed and it is somewhere between 0.5% and 1% - which is approximately 5-10x the expected death rate for the seasonal flu.
- The death rate (as is typical with lots of diseases) is much higher in older people and people with underlying conditions. It gets closer to 20% for 80+ years of age.
- I think it’s fair to view the data reported from China with suspicion, but this is confirmed in Italy where 95% of fatalities are over 65.
Hospitalization Rate
- This has not been discussed nearly as much as the death rate - but it’s more important and misunderstanding of this (from my point of view) explains the gap in people’s understanding of the disease. It seems that hospitalization rates are very high - much higher than with a seasonal flu and depending on how much unreported disease prevalence, May be as high as 10-20%. Hospitalizations are MUCH less discriminatory by age. So it’s unclear how many younger people would be dying without the assistance of hospitals.
- This is why we are social distancing - no one has hospital capacity to support 10% of the population at once.
- If the number of people requiring hospitalization exceeds the availability of hospital beds then it’s clear the death rate is going to go up.
Asymptomatic people and transmission
- It is widely reported that lots of people are asymptomatic - as many as 50%. It’s not clear how many of them are truly asymptomatic and how many are AS YET asymptomatic.
- This sounds great, but it’s a nightmare scenario for disease spread. It means otherwise healthy people are spreading a disease that will kill 1% of the population.
- Children do not get this disease very much. There have been well publicized exceptions but just like with many viruses, children either fight them off without symptoms or develop milder symptoms than adults. This is great for those of us worried about our kids. What is unclear at this point is how much children SPREAD the disease. The schools are closed everywhere under the assumption that they do spread it and this is largely informed by our experience with the flu where children are “super spreaders” because they run around sneezing in each other and dripping snot everywhere (bless their hearts). But this may be a case of fighting the last war instead of the one we’re in.
I will be the first to admit that I didn’t catch on to “what’s the big deal?” Very quickly. This is partly because the death rate and the age distribution were the headline items often most coverages. But there’s very good reason to be taking extreme public health measures to slow the spread of this virus. I wish people would devote less time and energy to figuring out who to blame and how to turn it into a vote getting measure and more energy into figuring out how to help people who are getting really crushed by the public health measures.
Sorry, end rant.
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Those are very good points there. People always seem to do things to gain votes and fight instead of fixing the problem. If a Zombie apocalypse were to happen (Which is impossible mind you.) We would not survive as a species.
The virtue signaling, the finger pointing. This no different form accusations made in the dark ages during the black plague.
Also as an update.
We called our super visor earlier and told her about the situation.
1: turns out the quarantine was just a suggestion, not mandatory.
2: Sense we are not sick and don’t seem to be carrying the virus, we can actually go back to work Tomorrow (Me typing this as of April 6th)
Also I just want to say, there is no such thing as an average pay week for us. Every 2 weeks something happens. Like maintenance needs to be ran and we can’t go in until 10:00 AM. (this has happened to us a few times and it results in a liberal leave)
yeah man, i gotta agree with what you’re saying about how people are using this virus. i just want to say that it really is doing nobody any favors, people’s lives are at stake out there and i see no way to respect idiots using them as political currency. on my social media feeds, ive seen both sides going at it and all i can do is laugh at them. there’s no getting through to them. thanks for the data you shared as well, that was good information and it made alot of sense. to me, the worst thing about this is definitely the asymptomatic phase, as well as symptoms being similar to the flu. lately ive been hearing of a new one, that being that people infected are unable to taste any food or drink they have. this virus can hide itself pretty well with its incubation period, symptoms, people carrying it and spreading it while not knowing. i think people have had very slight cases then came out like nothing happened, but scenarios like this i think can have an impact of increased cases. its pretty nasty
knowing this, i saw everyone on facebook saying “its just a flu bro” or “the flu is worse”, so that influenced alot of people down here. i was frustrated with the reactions i saw, i tried to warn alot of folks but id get labeled a conspiracy theorist by both sides, or ignorant fools. they partied, one guy i know took his chic on basically a walk-about all over ■■■■■■ texas passing through countless vectors, people still bumrushed the stores, so the county next door is seeing a rise in cases. a baby died, a little kid, and a 17yr old teenager, older folks too. tragedies that couldve been avoided if their families were out being stupid.
all we can do is keep our families safe, and healthy. one day at a time, the bell curve on this thing is inevitable, we will be seeing a decline in cases, an increase in recoveries. by my estimates, id say at least for my area, around mid to late june. we shall see
This may well be true, but it’s worth noting that most respiratory infections that result in a stuffy nose have a big impact on your taste and smell. Time will tell if it is especially associated with COVID-19, but it’s probably not especially reliable. Certainly if you experience loss of smell or taste with no other symptoms its a good idea to isolate.
As for the politics of it, it’s basically the old parable of the frog and the scorpion. The scorpion will always sting the frog because at the end of the day, that’s what scorpions do.
As for people, they respond pretty predictably. Most people reviewed the facts available - that the death rate was not overly dramatic, that it mostly affected the elderly or health compromised, and that all the authorities everywhere kept telling them they had a very low probability of getting the disease. So they interpret that as “why are we even talking about this?” Which was the right question - but largely went unanswered until “flattening the curve” came into the lexicon. Even then, it’s a euphemism for “if the case load is higher than medical facility capacity this thing is going to get much worse,” which I STILL don’t think is being communicated consistently and clearly. I think people remembered the previous SARS in China - which never really impacted most of us even though there was a lot of breathless media coverage, and with the dearth of reliable information from China it wasn’t until it hit Italy that people started to understand.
Hey @justathereptile, are you guys in a position where you have to go in to the worksite to get paid? I know that makes things tough but you might want to consider staying home for a while regardless.
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For the most part, the schools being shut down and my kids being home is about the only substantial affect covid has had on my family. Our county only has 1 official case so far. My wife and I are still going to work like normal (poultry processing plant, people still gotta eat) though they do have stricter guidelines in place, obviously.
I’ve still been adding to my Transformers collection. My most recent purchase was 2 of from the Seacons combiner group, Snaptrap and Skalor. I actually had the original Gen 1 figures when I was a kid, but I never had the full set. Between my brother and I we had 2 leader/torso and 3 limb combiner figures from different groups to make a one-armed hodgepodge combiner. And now that I have the 2 Seacons I can recreate that particular setup with modern figures.
Other than that I’ve been thinking of some kind of hobby project I could do at home, and I think I’ve settled on getting a couple of large lots of broken &/or untested Xbox and Switch controllers and fixing them and then selling them back on Ebay. I haven’t done anything towards it so far except doing a little research.
But I’ve had plenty of experience taking my own controllers apart and fixing/customizing them, so I thought I might as well put it to good use while I’m stuck at home.
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So, my mother and I went to our local Walmart today. I never feel uncomfortable at Walmart once in my life until today… I saw many people wearing masks and one man in black trash bag. I really need to get mask…
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Sorry you had an uncomfortable experience. I don’t know what he’s hoping to accomplish with that trash bag, but people’s homebrew efforts to make their own PPE are getting pretty wild. As someone with a laboratory background (Disclaimer - not a public health or disease background), I have a pretty good understanding of how hard it is to prevent the spread of contaminants without both proper equipment AND training in how to use it. I will set aside my personal opinion on whether mass, public use of masks is useful or not, but I will tell you whatever utility comes from everyone wearing masks it is not in keeping the person wearing the mask from getting infected. The utility is if the person wearing the mask is already infected and doesn’t know it, the mask will help them avoid inadvertently spreading the disease. So you shouldn’t feel terribly worried, from your own health point of view, about not having a mask.
Having said that, the social pressure to wear a mask in any public space is already very, very high, and it’s only going to get higher. You are unlikely to be able to find a commercial mask at this point, so I would definitely recommend you put something together at home if for no other reason than to avoid an awkward social situation. Obviously it’s still better (and more effective) to stay home if at all possible rather than going out with a mask on.
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how was everybody’s easter? ours was a quiet one, my family BBQ’d and we ate dinner together. my sis got a new cat, which is cool but im allergic. i like cats, id have one if i could since they’re easy maintenance but nope id die lol. im more of a dog person myself, but when things go back to normal i wouldnt have time for one. today was uneventful, just did my online class BS, played doom, and tekken. good news, my town saw recoveries so we are down to 3. meanwhile the next city over continues to increase slowly as more folks get tested
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Mines was good. As a tradition, Jeff and I would buy those chocolate bunny’s and eat them. We even went over to our parents for ham and scalp potatoes.
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Eh, it was ok. My wife did all the usual Easter baskets and chocolate bunnies shtick, and later, since it was raining, we did an egg hunt for my youngest. Nothing special. We’re all doing ok. I live so far away from civilization Covid has hardly reached us yet, with only 1 case in our whole county. One thing that has sucked so far is thanks to all the pollen in the air for the past week I’ve been hacking and coughing my head off, been short of breath, etc, but I’m certain it’s not Covid because I haven’t had a fever and otherwise don’t feel too terribly bad. But my allergies certainly have enough similar symptoms to evoke some small sense of dread.
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we had a few days of rain down here last week, then pollen as well so i had allergies too. i was sneezing and coughing while also feeling slight feverish. i was a bit creeped out, not gonna lie so i dealt with it by tryin to keep busy. youll be alright, just keep up with the hygiene and all that. it sucks indeed, so i know where youre comin from
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We had 3 days of cold mornings. Because the storms form last week sucked out all the warm air. We got it back today though.
Today I got a box of 8 Xbox controllers, all broken to varying degrees. Most of them seem like they’ll be simple enough to repair…mostly just analog drift. A couple of them had the R bumper broke. On one the R Trigger was constantly registering 100%. Weird. And then there was one that just really makes me question how it broke at all. The view, menu, A, and X buttons weren’t working, the guide button light doesn’t come on, and the micro USB port is pretty loose. Stuff like that just really makes me want to question what exactly happened to cause it to be so broken?
Oh, also today I got a broken Wii U gamepad I was going to salvage for parts to fix my gamepad. It was such a frustrating thing…I had the thing fixed, and it wasn’t 3 days till my 7 year old dropped his 2ds onto the screen and cracked it again. I got a replacement for it, and my my son @Thunderb3E decided he’s going to fix it, and when he did he snapped off the tiny clamp that holds down the touch screen’s ribbon cable.
I swear, it’s like my Wii U is like “No! Stop trying to revive me! I don’t want to keep on going!! I can’t go on in a world where I’ve been forgotten! Let me die, please!!”
Wow, I was intending that to be funny, but it got dark real fast. 
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Working on stuff for the primal rage chaos vs slashfang animation as we speak.
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been workin earning that hazard pay here and there. also been working on classes too alot. the days have been pretty uneventful, sometimes i forget whether its monday or tuesday lol. its been a blur, and so far it seems ill be working out of home for another month
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Well, I fixed a couple of XB1 controllers today. It wasn’t too hard, just replacing a couple of drifting analog sticks, and by replace I mean soldering. The only issue I had was on the first controller I somehow managed to remove the solder pad for one of the connectors, so the solder either wanted to stick to the connector or the iron, but not the circuit board. I managed to get it to work though, and now they’re both fully functional again. 2 down, 7 more to go.
So, I need some way to vent. My in-laws did something incredibly stupid and refuse to listen to reason.
My father-in-law’s facebook account got hacked. How, I don’t know. But because he’s computer illiterate, I’m guessing he somehow thought his account getting hacked was because there was something wrong with his computer, so he calls up this number he got from the last time he got scammed (yes, this isn’t the first time), and gave them free remote access to his PC to add all kinds of digital snake oil claiming that they found he got hacked from somewhere in Nigeria, amongst other things. And for all their effort they only charged $900, which he’s supposed to wire to them tomorrow. What makes it so infuriating is that not only is his computer illiteracy making him completely oblivious to what he’s doing, but even after explaining what he’s doing, he’s still willing to go along with the whole thing because his moral code says they’re fair people that did a fair job so they deserve their fair pay.
And despite the fact that I’m pretty much the family go-to for tech support, I’m pretty well being ignored for this whole ordeal.
And all of this comes about a month after I installed a SSD in their PC so he’d quit seeing a need for those “speed up your PC” apps he tends to download!!
…oh well, I guess I’ll get another chance to fix it in about 3 months when they get ahold of him again telling him that his computer’s been compromised again and he needs to pay them another $900 to fix the issue.
G1GlaciusPrime 's lesson for the day:
Don’t be this stupid.
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