DISCLAIMER: ENORMOUS WALL OF TEXT, SOZ Y’ALL!
I think I’m a little late to the party. While I don’t have a ton of matchup experience with a goodly chunk of the cast, I’ll toss my $.02 on the table anyhow. I will reduce the categorization to Loses/Even/Beats, and eliminate the mirror from my analysis for simplicities sake (reducing the effective cast to 25).
I think you’re pretty close with your “will have big advantages” list. I might add Spinal to it, as teleports in general are obnoxious for a true grappler to put up with. Maybe Rash? In general, anyone that plays efficient keepaway or spends a lot of time in the air will give RAAM trouble. Characters that have to get close to deal damage play themselves into RAAM’s hands, with some caveats. That said, however, the “difficult to deal with” list I almost wholly disagree with.
While, for the time being (even post-nerf v.1) I don’t think Eyedol should be considered (as he’s gonna be a problem for everyone until whatever is going on with him shakes out and settles down) - I think that ultimately they will go even or the match will be in RAAM’s favor. Consider that, aside from Teleport, Mage’s zoning is uniquely susceptible to Run Grab; and Warrior wants to be in your face all day with plus frames, but he isn’t plus enough that RAAM can’t slip a Grab in his pressure gaps. RAAM has little to fear, just much to be annoyed by when facing down Eyedol. The same is true of pretty much any grounded rushdown strategy - it is only playing into RAAM’s favor.
Riptor can be a nuisance with Mortars and Carpet on offense, but again, if she’s in your face, she’s risking an awful lot every time. A character needs to be at least +2 with a frame-perfect 5f (or less) followup to safely bully without getting grabbed (+4>4f to beat EX Grab), and that’s not gonna happen a lot.
Aganos’ size makes the spacing game a bit easier, as he effectively reduces the total possible screen space between you and your opponents hurtbox. He needs resources to effectively zone you, as his long-range buttons are slow enough to be a liability for him here. You will still have to get in on him, but it shouldn’t be as difficult as walking down a fireball character. Grab doesn’t care about armor, Reversal doesn’t care about Roll Hop, and so long as you aren’t getting put through a wall, you should be getting more out of your openings than he is, while simultaneously invalidating some his greatest strengths. I haven’t played this match, so I’m just kinda spitballing here.
Hisako, while not fun, likewise can have her strengths subverted. Every attempted Rekka can be interrupted with Grab, even if she Parry Cancels. In fact, the threat of your Grab should scare her away from attempts at Parry altogether. Her Teleport, unlike others, is telegraphed and slow enough to punish every time if you’re watching for it (as there is only one, as opposed to 3+ elsewhere), which reduce it’s usefulness to Wrath Cancel only. Granted, once you show her that you’re not afraid of her on the ground, she should take to the sky, and that’s a bit different. I’d say she probably has the edge here, but it’ll take a good Hisako to pick up that advantage.
Arbiter, I don’t have any experience against as RAAM, so I’m not sure of some key interactions, specifically how Reversal & Run Grab interact with Grenade. If RAAM doesn’t have to respect the Grenade, I’d say this matchup suddenly becomes favorable for RAAM.
I would agree that Thunder, TJ, and Jago go even with RAAM. All 3 have to be close to get their damage, but there are some fundamental mindgames between players involved. Specifically, Thunder’s grab range let’s him threaten RAAM from beyond RAAM’s effective range, but RAAM doesn’t have to fear Skyfall as much as others, so the adaptation is Thunder’s burden; TJ’s Powerline Cancels can make him exceptionally slippery, but once you’ve got him, you can put him on the ropes; and Jago is the quintessential Ryu>Gief match, but this time we’ve got FADC where he doesn’t, and our projectile armor can help out in “sweet spot” situations (corner spacing w fireballs to bait jumps into uppercuts) so we aren’t spacially dominated the way Gief is/was.
I disagree with Mira’s placement on technicalities. Yes, the fact that she spends life to get in means that once you lay hands, you’ll work considerably less than normal to end the lifebar. However, Mira has incredible aerial mobility, and can run circles around RAAM with it. It is risky, but that doesn’t mean RAAM beats Mira. If anything, Mira destroys RAAM on paper, but the burden is on Mira to play carefully. RAAM will melt bad Mira’s, and not get to play against good ones. Player skill notwithstanding, I’d say Mira beats RAAM.
All these things considered, I’d say that…
RAAM Loses To: 10/25
Cinder, Glacius, Gargos, Shago, Omen, Fulgore, Kan-Ra, Aria, Spinal, Mira
RAAM is Even With: 4/25
Thunder, TJ, Jago, Hisako
RAAM Beats: 11/25
Eyedol, Riptor, Aganos, Arbiter, Maya, Orchid, Wulf, Kim, Tusk, Rash, Sadira
This seems pretty par-for-the-course considering his archetype. Further, I don’t think any of his bad matchups are completely unwinnable. If they improve the height of Reversal, half of those get a bit easier (though not so much to favor RAAM). Moreover, I don’t think these are so bad that it would drive people away from the character, that’s a bit of hyperbole. It will only drive away the people who weren’t going to settle on the true grappler anyway, the matchup assessment above is perfectly normal in terms #grapplerlife. Grapplers aren’t for everyone, there is a lot more burden on the player than with some other archetypes. Having a typical amount of bad matchups doesn’t mean he needs new tools, it means he needs dedication and a bit more forethought, a bit more opponent-knowledge, than some other characters. No biggie.
EX Run Grab just needs to have a reason to use it, other than “I didn’t really want that bar anyway”.
@VENOMOUS1375 SF4 Gief had no air-grab, grounded or mid-air. SF5 (and MvC2) Gief have aerial SPD’s though. In my opinion, as much I love snatching folks out of the air, RAAM’s Reversal is just as good, if not better. Given a choice, I’d keep what we got. Also, his cr.HP is insane.
EDIT: After a bit of consideration, I think Rash ultimately will spend too much time trying to be in RAAM’s face unsafely, and his air mobility, while annoying, often places him at RAAM’s advantage, while other aerial characters don’t have to commit the way Rash does. Ultimately, this should invalidate the perceived advantage of Rash’s aerial options, reducing them to riskier approaches than they otherwise would be - never ever ever underestimate the speed and range of your Grab. Also, RAAM has very little reason to respect Arby’s Grenade.
EDIT2: @STORM179’s post below makes a few very good points. I didn’t even really think about Sadira beyond “jumps a lot” when typing out the above. Fixed to reflect, though there’s an interesting discussion to be had in the traditional-grappler-beats-aerial-fireball-character notion. Granted, it’s his less-than-traditional tools that give the edge, so maybe not such an interesting discussion after all. More of a peculiarity.
EDIT3: Compared to his archetypal peers, RAAM actually has it pretty good. SF4 Hugo, SF5 Gief, GG Potemkin, BB Tager all have a much tougher time against their respective casts.