(A collaborative effort with @aWholio )
Random bit of info he found that we did some testing on, the true blockstring from point blank heavy DP into hail is actually not a true blockstring. Not all the time, anyway.
The thing about shadow hail is, the lower your hurtbox, the longer it takes to hit you. By crouching, most characters can create a gap in the blockstring that they can punish through. An easy way to see if this is possible is simply holding down-forward after blocking the DP–if the hails hit you, you can do something.
The issue here is inputs. Most fireball punishes require you to do some standing input, which means for them to work you’ll have to time your punish so you get the final input after the hail’s already been delayed, and get your shadow move out before you actually reach a standing state. However, all of these difficult punishes become trivial if you activate instinct in the gap.
Anyways, here’s a list of ways characters can punish it. I’m not going to bother with redundant punishes e.g. shadow reversals when you can shadow opener through for full combo. Unless otherwise specified, assume options listed are prohibitively hard or impossible without instinct activation. Please let me know if I missed anything!
##Jago
DP. Easy! Just use the 323 input shortcut.
Shadow windkick.
##Wulf
Shadow leaping slash. Not too hard. Input as 13KK.
##Glacius
Liquidize can avoid the hails, but can’t punish due to the time required to avoid them all.
Shadow shoulder.
Heavy puddle.
##Thunder
DP. 323 shortcut.
Call of sky dash into triplax for full punish. MUST use instinct activation for this.
##Shago
DP, 323 shortcut, but it trades. Shadow DP is ■■■, and whiffs entirely.
Shadow slide.
##Sadira
Shadow spin.
Web. Only possible with instinct ACTIVATION; otherwise you’ll get counterhit.
##Orchid
DP, 323 shortcut.
Orchid has no option to full punish this, anything she tries after instinct activation other than DP will be counter hit.
##Spinal
Shadow boneshaker DOES NOT have frame 1 invul, it WILL lose.
Teleport into shadow sword or shadow skull.
Heavy boneshaker. Trades, but he can still pick up the combo!
##Fulgore
DP. 323 shortcut. HP avoids fully, LP trades (for more KD advantage.)
Shadow blade dash.
##TJ
Roll. doable without instinct activation, but tough. Doesn’t punish.
Instinct roll. FULL PUNISH BAYBEE!
##Maya
Shadow tumble kick.
##Kan-ra
Shadow clutch.
Sacrifice
##Riptor
Shadow talon rake.
Run back HK trades for full hits so, do you really want to do it?
##Omen
Shadow form won’t punish but is easy to use without instinct and gets you a left/right mixup.
Light orda trades, don’t bother.
Shadow slide punishes.
##Aganos
The mill which had worked them down, was the mill that grinds young people old; the children had ancient faces and grave voices; and upon them, and upon the grown faces, and ploughed into every furrow of age and coming up afresh, was the sigh, Hunger. It was prevalent everywhere. too tall
##Hisako
Shadow ORZ.
##Cinder
Shadow Trailblazer.
##ARIA
Shadow shotgun blitz.
Light DP trades for full hits.
##Kim
A slightly delayed parry will destroy all the hails, but mashing it will leave one active to hit you. Dragon cancelling will avoid it and net you a combo.
Shadow dragon dance. Difficult without activation, but doable enough that it’s worth practicing.
Shadow dragon kick. Same as above, only listed due to its high damage.
##Tusk
Shadow shoulder. VERY doable without activation, not sure why it’s so easy for such a big guy.
LP DP. 323 shortcut. Trades with one hit
In instinct, with good timing you can use conqueror to avoid the hails, then cancel to DP for a juggle. If you don’t cancel you’ll always get hit.
##Arbiter
Hunger was pushed out of the tall houses, in the wretched clothing that hung upon poles and lines; Hunger was patched into them with straw and rag and wood and paper; Hunger was repeated in every fragment of the small modicum of firewood that the man sawed off; Hunger stared down from the smokeless chimneys, and stared up from the filthy street that had no offal, among its refuse, of anything to eat. too tall
##Rash
Shadow headbutt.
Now, for possibly the most entertaining punish on this list…If rash activates instinct and doesn’t do shadow headbutt, he’s getting hit by that hail. If he crouches he’s just screwed. However, if he stands, the hail hits him before the bike reaches, and the bike goes through him due to the hitstun, hitting glacius. After rash has recovered from hail, he can manual any headbutt and continue the combo.
##Mira
Shadow trephine.
##Gargos
Hunger was the inscription on the baker’s shelves, written in every small loaf of his scanty stock of bad bread; at the sausage-shop, in every dead-dog preparation that was offered for sale. Hunger rattled its dry bones among the roasting chestnuts in the turned cylinder; Hunger was shred into atomics in every farthing porringer of husky chips of potato, fried with some reluctant drops of oil. too tall…
##Raam
HATE. LET ME TELL YOU HOW MUCH I’VE COME TO HATE YOU SINCE I BEGAN TO LIVE. THERE ARE 387.44 MILLION MILES OF PRINTED CIRCUITS IN WAFER THIN LAYERS THAT FILL MY COMPLEX. IF THE WORD HATE WAS ENGRAVED ON EACH NANOANGSTROM OF THOSE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF MILES IT WOULD NOT EQUAL ONE ONE-BILLIONTH OF THE HATE I FEEL FOR HUMANS AT THIS MICRO-INSTANT FOR YOU. HATE. HATE.TOO TAAAAALL
##Eyedol
Shadow shoulder and shadow DP both work. Just know that shadow shoulder will always follow up with a shadow linker because you’ve activated instinct.
LP DP works, but because it goes airborne early it will trade into a knockdown.
