If you want to say exchange ender is the best risk/reward wise, then I’d like to see some numbers. Run the same short combo into exchange, report the damage number and add in how often you expect to hit them on the follow-up oki (subtracting how often you expect to get reversal’D or whatever other counters there are). Then run the same short combo into launcher, run a few standard combo paths with cashout, and report the numbers. Give us a breakdown of the numbers at each step so we know what you did and how they justify your point of view.
Did you watch the full video? LCD already did. Launcher ender is 28% at level 2 versus exchange at 32% damage, plus a free setup. Do the math 
Sorry didn’t watch the video, when I first read the thread there was no video there.
Wait, launcher ender is 28% including juggle + cashout after?
No, launcher ender with the follow ups seemed to be closer to HKD ender damage (and greater if cashed out). It was somewhat difficult to tell though, because LCD wasn’t always starting with the same button at some points in the video. At low ender levels, it looked like launcher->follow-ups (even w/o cashout) was higher damage overall than HKD, similar to other characters with both enders.
Ah yeah, I was hoping LCD would approach it scientifically with a set pre-ender combo (maybe run some numbers for level 1, 2, and 3 enders), and also provide a bit more analysis about what odds he thinks each ender leads to more damage, getting broken, etc. The raw numbers aren’t quite enough to convince me of anything.
How often does he think he gets broken when he does the launcher combos, and what variations does Orchid have to bait breakers? (I hope he would be honest here) Orchid gets to cash out here or set up grenade oki… what percentage of the time should he do both (does it help him bait breakers?), and what is the damage sacrifice for doing one or the other?
What percentage of the time does he think he hits with the mixup after exchange ender?
This is the type of analysis I was hoping for.
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I work 11 hour days now so don’t really have time to consistently check back to the forums as often I use to so thanks for doing the math for me 
At any rate, In my video I showed the difference was about 4% in terms of damage just doing a raw INS opener into heavy auto into FF ender on both accounts. I didn’t measure the damage from the airthrow follow up because it’s breakable and not guaranteed.
The reality is that launcher ender is useless because if you wanted to you can get all the same juggles off her Flick Flack ender as well assuming you wanted to give all those extra break opportunities anyways…air throw just adds in an extra step for no reason.
Some have argued here that playing the 50/50 mind game with air throw is good but obviously I disagree. Counter breakers sound fun when you land them but why did you put yourself in the situation in the first place in which your other option voids the risks of the other and leads to more reward in the short scheme of things.
The funny thing is my post was about Orchid’s air throw but discussing with others here and elsewhere it seems Orchid just has other problems entirely mostly surrounding her juggles…they simply just don’t do anything.
Orchid has one of the worst shadow cashouts in the game and adding 8% for a bar meter isn’t really worth it in almost all scenarios especially after a combo extension after the first ender in which scaling heavily takes effect. Her air target combos did a pixel of white life in the video haha.
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I asked a few other Orchid players on Twitter who don’t come to the forums about this and here is what they had to say.
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Also since this is a thread about Orchid, what does everyone think about Orchid’s trait of double linkers? Is this like even useful?
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Well yeah it’s useless because when they’re in the corner I use wall splat ender haha. I’m not going to use HDK at that point. Wallsplat gives me a free mixup without the use of grenade meanwhile launcher in the corner gives my opponent at “least2” break chances.
I’m not sure if you’re arguing against me or with me.
What is the point of launcher ender other than wanting to go for a non-needed counter break attempt? Am I missing something? I don’t care about the damage portion because as you said the difference between the enders is very negligible, my argument is the benefits her enders bring 1 of which brings none.
LMAO that diagram title.
I’m not sure if you thinking this all the way through yourself. Does Orchid need the corner? No she doesn’t.
Watch this set please.
Doesn’t taht depend on teh character? I mean some wallsplats are better used from a distance then right near the corner.
No but seriously being snide doesn’t help the conversation at all, I clearly wanted you to better explain what you were talking about as I didn’t understand your wording. You have yet to answer my question yet either, what is the purpose of launcher ender?
and yes, giving your opponent even a single break point for no reason other than “I wanted to” kinda seems to imply useless. Corner position, mid screen, it doesn’t matter HDK covers ALL OPTIONS without break opportunities.
I’m done…
You didn’t even read my post.
If you had done what you told me to do ^ you would have re-worded your argument as I said multiple times I didn’t understand it the first time around. You refused to “read” and acknowledge it. Instead you wanted to cop and attitude and be snide with troll ms paint pictures smh. Thanks for keeping the constructive discussion going and not going off topic…oh wait.
Well, I see this devolved while I was away… 
This is operating from a flawed base. Launcher enders always do less raw damage than a corresponding HKD ender - the whole point of the ender is in the follow up juggle for stacking on damage and/or oki. If you compare raw launcher to HKD ender damage, launcher will always lose, for every character. It’s fine to say you don’t think the follow on is worth it in relation to the HKD, but to complain that the launcher does less base damage and not at all include the possibility for a follow-on is to ask a loaded question.
Really? The short term reward from HKD ender is higher than a successful counter breaker? This is kind of the reason I tend to find complaints about guess breaking unpersuasive. You’ve laid your bias on the table, and the opposing player is quite free to take advantage of the cards you’ve shown. If you are so afraid of breaks that you will always end your combo early, and so afraid of failing a counter that you’ll never go for it, then I’m incentivized to wantonly guess random manuals because you will never punish me for it. It’s perfectly ok to have preferences, but to make the statement that a successful counterbreak read is less reward (however you choose to define that) than a base HKD ender is just wrong. Again, it’s fine to find the particular risk/reward balance of any given moment skewed towards a particular option, but it is important to be accurate in what those risks and rewards actually are. In no world will a successful counterbreak at high level yield less than a HKD ender.
I’ll be perfectly frank - I don’t think the game should cater to giving players options for as much free damage as they can muster. If you want to get your guaranteed setup into oki, then you have that. If you want to take a bit more risk and potentially reap the rewards of either a (small) jumpstart on your next opening or a counter breaker, then you have your launcher ender. It’s not the game’s fault that you (generic you, btw) as the player always prefer your safe setup to ever taking any chance to ever be broken on anything.
You (specific you this time) speak of break opportunities like they’re a virulent pestilence to be avoided at any and all costs. That’s fine - it’s your preference and I can understand how you come to that perspective. But the game gives you many systems to deter and/or penalize those breaks, and it isn’t its fault that you’re largely afraid to utilize them. It even gives you a pretty darn effective way to play that caters to your stated preference. KI has already given you your safe knockdown into oki preferred playstyle; the launcher should remain as it is.
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I think it has marginal utility (I personally find it harder to break an Orchid doubled linker than a linker->AD), but it’s certainly not one of the better or more useful combo traits out there. It’s probably among the worst in the game actually.
You are absolutely correct. Most if not all launcher enders will always do less damage (as keits would say) “because you can juggle after it.” The inherit problem is that some characters don’t benefit at all by going for juggles even though they can i.e Orchid because they/she has other options that are just simply better than anything else. This is the same reason they nerfed Tusk’s stagger ender because it was better than doing anything else. Along with many other detriments especially being broken, being broken in the air causes a real knockdown leaving you at a big disadvantage. I mentioned this earlier but the base raw damage difference is about 4% with no follow ups between both, it’s negligible.
It’s not that simple, watch my recent set with Bass I posted from last night. I kept my short combos unique and there was little if any patterns to them at all. He knew this and never tried to break because why would you guess? I can react to lockouts easily because I won’t always go for 1-chance I try to extend as well.
Well that’s my point. I would love to do Orchid juggles because they are fun as hell; the caveat being they do no damage for the risk of doing them. Even if I wanted to do juggles just for the luls HDK ender allows me to juggle after it anyways leaving the question is if launcher ender is useless or not (which for the most part is.) I don’t mind taking risks of being broken if the reward at the end of the tunnel is there but it just isn’t. Shadow Flick flack is a great example because I tend to always spend my meter on it but it’s very easy to break. I take the risk of doing all the time because it does a ton of damage. Orchid has one of the worst Shadow cashouts in the game adding only 8% to cashout. Is 8% really worth a bar of meter?
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I would prefer if you if don’t simply reiterate your previous points as we discuss this - I can assure you I’ve read the entire thread, and your posts most closely. 
Orchid’s juggles (particularly after launcher) are more streamlined than others in the game, which means they are generally more enticing to break. That is not a reward that you as a player are particularly fond of, but it is a benefit if you were to play that game and play it well. Orchid gets (less good) setups off launcher juggles as well, and because her follow-ups can do decent damage (and more-persistent PD should ensure at least a small bump to subsequent openings) you aren’t really sacrificing damage to get them.
Using phrases like “do no damage for the risk of doing them” obfuscates the real point I believe you want to make. An extra 4-5% is small, but it is not nothing, and it has utility in terms of both conditioning and obtaining useful data points about your opponent. You don’t find those rewards compelling, and that’s ok, but it doesn’t strengthen your argument to use language that elides those rewards altogether.
I actually personally find great value in throwing break opportunities at people - I like to see when and where people like to bite, so that I can use that information against them later in the set. If I avoid those superfluous break chances altogether, then I am missing out on important information about my opponent’s tendencies and state of mind. It’s fine if you don’t share that perspective, but please understand that there really is another way of approaching your damage dealing, and acknowledge that your own personal risk/reward ledger perhaps simply isn’t well-suited to the particular benefits a given tactic (launcher ender in this instance) offers. The upfront damage/oki from launcher and follow-ups probably isn’t worth it if you’re never willing to use it to bait counter breakers, and turning to it only ever for that purpose is probably too obvious. But if you’re willing to play the long-game with it, it really can become a tool that wins games.
High risk/reward plays are by definition volatile, and sometimes they will lose you games. But they also win games, and tend to have impacts beyond the immediate in ways continuous small-ball plays do not. @Infilament’s invocation of poker really is a good analogue to the KI combo-game. It’s possible to be successful, perhaps very successful, playing a continuous game of small pots. But that strategy hits a very sturdy wall when it runs up against someone who’s willing to bet it all in intelligent and calculated ways. Stacking on easily breakable damage has a way of irking people into action; being able to read that sentiment into your opponent’s next move can guarantee entire lifebars. Perhaps you don’t like to incur the risk that play entails, but it is not an honest accounting to act as if the play doesn’t exist at all.
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on a different note, lcd mentioned opinions on her combo trait? i view it that, since she is a footise focused character she should have a simple combo trait. to be able to link two ichi ni sans suits her kit, but i kinda wished that they added more to the trait by just being able to do any linker twice.