You have the manual after the wind kick, as well as the wind kick before the ender.
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Yeah it does 35% for the two chance break. You can get 39% damage for ONE chance break for two bars with st.hp xx shadow laser sword, heavy manual shadow dp ender. THATâs a one chance break with jago.
Which also by the way a large part (or I think everyone) can do that with two bars of shadow meter. So this is nothing new.
So first you said there was a 1 chance 50+ percent one chance combo with Jago. Then you gave us a 2 chance two meter 30% combo and said that there was some potential damage already there.
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Aside from the redundant option in there (overhead and high), this isnât necessarily a true statement. The manual and grab bit is true of every character with a wallsplat - and thatâs not really a guess, theyâre almost out of KV and itâs the end of their combo. The air impale counterbreak game is a guess as to whether or not Tusk will counterbreak, but heâs gambling on you too. Itâs a big gamble for both players, but isnât that the counterbreak âmind games in accordance with your opponentâ of yore? And the reset (blowout? long slide?) isnât much of a guess either - just block low until you see the overhead startup (or a jump). He pretty much turns 360 swinging that thing, you donât have to guess.
Manuals after a stagger, you donât have to guess and break. You can opt to let that manual happen. If you get grabbed, you got grabbed. If you couldnâtâve broken it because you were staggered, thatâs just a short combo that probably left damage on the table (this of course varies character to character). Itâs overall much less dangerous than a combo>L Double>drop reset.
What Iâm getting at is that none of those things REQUIRE a guess. None of those things REQUIRE a reaction - unless youâre reacting to the situation that comes AFTER stagger>manual (the next part of the combo) or AFTER stagger>grab (usually a knockdown, otherwise the next section of a breakable combo). As for the timing reset, youâre not supposed to REACT to the x-millisecond delay, but make a READ on whether or not youâre gonna get reset, and commit to your read/guess (itâs only guessing if it doesnât work!), then live with the consequences. Again, not much different from auto-double>drop resets, with less potential stacked in most cases, and so less on the line. Unless your problem is just with Tusks raw damage output and youâre taking it out on stagger.
Flipouts bear the risk of being telegraphed for breaking, and then becoming a part of a character or players counterbreak game. Flipouts are almost always lights. Also, the mixup after a flipout leaves a considerably larger space to react to the situation than staggers. Quicker than a knockdown, but otherwise not very different.
EDIT: The bit about the Jago combo has been covered above.
Regarding the flipout mechanic, knowing is half the battle. Most flipouts from your opponent will occur from an attack in the air (usually from a jumping LP or LK), so recognizing that and being ready to break their flipout manual as they jump at you is just another option to consider (please note some may occur on the ground against a jumping opponent, i.e. you, or even when youâre knocked down, as is the sole case with General Raam). Is it a variable? Yes. Is it a guessing game, though? No. As I said, most characters will use light attacks to cause a flipout, so being ready with a light combo breaker is something youâll simply have to adjust to. Getting used to this, thankfully, removes a lot of the guesswork that comes after such a hit.
If you find that combo-breaking the flipout manual is too hard, however, seeing the flipout animation of you, well, flipping over, should give you enough time to plan on what youâre going to do next upon landing, such as going on the defensive (with options like blocking high or low, neutral jumping or jumping away, teching a throw, or back-dashing) based upon what you know of your opponentâs mixup options (this part requires character knowledge).
Regarding stagger, itâs really easy to deal with. In most cases, you can break the follow-up attack on the stagger (or tech it if itâs a throw), based upon what options are available to your opponent (usually manuals; and again, this requires character knowledge). A good example is Aganos - he can stagger you with his far s.HP; if you get hit by it, he has only a few options, since he wonât be close enough for a throw attempt. In most cases, heâll either try to hit you with a pulverize or natural disaster, so knowing how to read and break those 2 moves is key in this matchup.
I think your frustration stems from lack of understanding in regards to these mechanics and the characters. Take the time to learn them as well as what your opponentâs options are, and itâll take out a lot of the supposed guesswork that youâre rambling on about. Iâd be happy to practice with you if youâd like. 
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Exactly⊠You can only chose to break once and either be right or wrong⊠Like⊠am I missing something here?
I just told you what the two break chances were. Also, the wind kick is likely either medium or heavy, and there are tells which strength is which.
Get get one chance to guess break dude⊠and if you donât guess right⊠youâre screwed⊠Just because there are 2 breakable moves in the combo doesnât mean you get a chance to break them bothâŠ
By this logic every combo in the game is a one chance break.
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Wait, what?
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So combo is a 1 chance in KI? You get it right or wrong.
This happens with the whole combo system. If you get locked outâŠthen youâre screwed till the timer is done.
OkayâŠ
In this particular combo there is absolutely nothing you can react to⊠scenarioâŠ
You get caught off guard by a yolo wind kick right⊠you get the manual, then the shadow endo⊠followed by an additional wind kick to shadow DPâŠ
You can either guess to break the manual on the front end⊠or the wind kick on the back end⊠either way you have to guess⊠I understand that there are 2 moves you can break in accordance to the combo stringâŠ
so all in all⊠2 moves to guess⊠1 chance to guess right is how Iâm looking at itâŠ
As you stated⊠you can kind of get the feels for a manual depending on what move comes before it⊠true⊠but this is completely un-reactable. lol⊠itâs like before I knew it the combo was over⊠and I was in danger zoneâŠ
You guys say this combo is 30%⊠I popped as 50%+ on my screen⊠mind you I had been blocking fireballs the entire MU⊠but whateverâŠ
my point with this thread is that the guessing in this game is at an all time high⊠We originally had a guessing system that worked great⊠now we just put more guessing on top of guessingâŠ
Ever had a salad that was 90% ranch and 10% veggiesâŠ?? ⊠doesnât sound tasty does it?.. 
And what IâM trying to tell you is that thereâs no reason for the guessing trend to increase other than the players feeling like they need to for whatever reason.
Doesnât everyone technically have a one-chance break? Donât believe it is specifically tied to one particular character.
Tested this combo. It is 39% for 2 bars with both as heavies. I like your close to 51% there.
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This is pretty much what Iâve been trying to say. None of the new stuff actually requires you to guess, and a lot of the more powerful âforced guessworkâ techniques pre-date S3.
If you feel like guesswork is at an all-time high, just stop guessing so much.
I appreciate the shout-out, but this isnât quite related to Chanchulaâs complaint as I understand it. He (I assume he, profile pic notwithstanding?) seems more upset about being forced to guess in comparatively more situations than in S1 and S2. A few quick notes though:
- Stagger enders are not qualitatively different from wall splat enders, with the (big) exception of being able to be performed mid screen. The throw coming out of it is techable.
- Wall splat resets are generally not reactable. If your wall splat reset is reactable, then itâs a sucky reset or you tried for an overhead. Chanchula is correct that you have to guess right, or be immediately opened up for additional damage.
- Staggers somewhat extend the âguess windowâ of a combo, but they rarely introduce them wholesale where they were not there before. There are not very many mid-combo staggers across the cast, and where they appear tends to be in line with other guess opportunities in previous seasons.
- A read is a guess that just happens to go right. Weâll all be better off when we admit this.
One thing I will say, however, is that the flipout mechanic is a bit of a âlove it or hate itâ thing. While I donât think it necessarily always increases the amount of defensive guesswork in KI (I can set up disgusting stuff on a knockdown just as easily), it greatly increases the speed of the guesswork. Flipout as a mechanic can force the defender to have to make a lightning array of defensive guesses, and for some characters (TJ is a good example), they are vastly more dangerous off flipout than they would be off a standard knockdown. I personally love the mechanic, but I donât think thereâs any doubt that they have considerable potential to force uncomfortable guesses out of the defense, and not everyone is going to be a fan of that style of play.
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Didnât IG say they were going to tend to that? They should anyway because they retuned some characters for S3 to be more juggle friendly.
I understand exactly what you mean, cause you are a thunder main and you know the results of all this better than anyone by writing this you see things that feels your opponents.
forced to highly guess break 
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