From my testing it seems to be 6f startup (including pre-freeze). It can punish TJ light tremor (-6) but can’t punish Shago light slide (-5). So maybe it’s 1+5, or 2+4, or something like that.
If you didn’t press a button and Shago does annihilation on you point blank, you have to do something throw invincible or jump (but you have time to land and hit him if you jump backwards so it’s not a big deal). If Shago is like 1 character length away from you, you can press a button, although I’m not sure why you would try when you can just jump backward and press a button.
So I think you can punish anything -6 or worse as long it leaves you super point blank. Not counting blocked DPs, I’m trying to think of moves it would be good punishes for. TJ tremor (you have to “reversal” the instinct activation though, I missed it a few times, I don’t think you get the special move input buffer here?) is a big one, Orchid high/low rekka is a big one, Jago heavy wind kick I guess? Most special moves aren’t -6 point blank so I can’t really think of too many. For example, it can’t punish ARIA heavy shotgun knee, which is like -8 or -9 but does not leave her point blank.
Yeah this is pretty good.