There’s something of a game-theoretic fallacy in there: the idea that an option won’t appear as much upon being made riskier, leading to opponents disrespecting the option totally, resulting in them actually getting hit by it more and the option being stronger overall.
It’s actually pretty easy to prove that lowering the payoff for an outcome on a given strategy in a zero-sum game can’t raise the expected payoff of said strategy, unless the opponent has decided to switch from their previously optimal habits to suboptimal habits. At the very least, sticking to your tendencies from before when wind kick was safe can’t lower your performance. More likely than not, making wind kick riskier makes available strategies which make you strictly more likely to win than before, since wind kick was such a pivotal move.
What’s more likely is that either
- You’re seeing far less wind kick, and hence rightly taking more liberties at midscreen, so when the occasional wind kick does come out it tends to get you. This may make the move more likely to hit, without significantly contributing to Jago’s overall damage output over the course of several matches, and hence not really impacting how you play against him.
- You’re getting cocky and taking too much liberty at midscreen, and wondering why you’re getting hit by so many wind kicks when the move is bad now. Strictly speaking the move probably isn’t completely out of Jago’s optimal tendency mix (otherwise never pre-emptively blocking at midscreen wouldn’t have an obvious answer), but the equilibrium point is one where you have more mid-screen liberty than you used to, and wind kick is seen less frequently than before, but you still have to block a bit. Re-learning that equilibrium point might take time and involve situations where you go too far and hand Jago a bunch of free openings, but it’ll stabilize at a point that is much more favorable for you.
It’s not possible for worse wind kick to raise the equilibrium, to where you’re faring worse at the midscreen or seeing wind kick more often in proficient play. It’s an argument that you see a lot of after a prominent nerf, but frankly it’s a trivially incorrect and bad argument and a kind of misinformation that people should stop spreading.
EDIT: I should mention (although I did in my previous post), that it’s not just about frequency of wind kick attempts and/or hits. (Though that part is important.) It’s also about how frequently Jago can, under cover of wind kick threat, walk or dash forward into a range where his buttons come online. There’s a trickle-down here, where less wind kick threat means less forward movement – an effect which seems to be more-or-less what IG wanted, based on their comments. How often are you letting Jago advance and put a button on you now?