To be honest, LCD, I think your “pros” are enough reason to not change anything. You also suggest that the developers are able to “remove guess breaking” and they are somehow choosing not to, as per your last sentence… I think you know that there is no possible way this can be done.
People guess all the time in fighting games; it’s nothing new in KI and it won’t be any different in any other fighting game (including the incoming SFV which a lot of people are thinking might be this “pure test of footsies” or something). People guess throw techs, they guess reversals, they guess when to take pressure back by mashing jab, and they guess jump in footsies. And bad players will guess on these things without thinking just like they will guess on 1st frame breakers in KI. You can’t escape guessing by changing the system or by moving to another game… it will always be there. Ask SF4 players how frustrating it was dealing with guess (safe) reversal and guess mash jab for 7 years, their only option to try and frame trap a 3 frame jab that leads to ultra if they’re wrong.
So, the question is… does the system reward guessing or does it punish it? I think KI does a pretty good job punishing guess breakers when you consider all the possible ways you can attempt to punish it. You can make a hard read on counter breaker, you can try to vary the strength, you can try to vary the timing (doubles vs linkers vs manuals), you can vary the combo length, and you can try to frame trap or reset. The odds are brutally against them IMO, not to mention the fact that a correct guess on their part only saves them from future damage (they have still taken damage to that point). An incorrect guess on their part is probably 20-25% more health at a minimum, and probably closer to 40% more in reality.
Does guess breaking make the game look silly? Only if the offense doesn’t correctly punish it IMO, but that’s true of every fighting game. SF4 looks absolutely ridiculous when Viper does one of her 7 different wakeup options and you aren’t able to set up a safe jump and magically have an all-encompassing OS. To me, what is actually fairly silly is KI players complaining about guess breaking and then not using one of the myriad of tools provided to them to stop it (and then they handily win the match anyway, muttering under their breath the whole time). I understand it’s frustrating, I really do… playing fighting game players who don’t think at all (or think the way you expect them to think) is something that will bring you to the brink of insanity in any game. Your best option is simply to make the hard reads you know you need to make and kill them for it. You block reversal DPs in SF4 and punish. Sometimes you’ll be wrong and he’ll do something stupid like wake up dive kick and take back pressure. Whatever… it doesn’t change your strategy. Sometimes you’ll be wrong on a counter breaker in KI and the guy will punish with a bad combo or a throw for 10% damage. You move on, because you know you will be right and you will kill him eventually.
I’d also like to comment on your suggestion to make doubles not breakable on startup… in general, I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad idea or one I would oppose, but I also don’t think it does anything to stop guess breaking. Smart players will learn to guess slightly later to cover all options anyway, and you already have a tool for locking out people who mash on breaker (linkers are NOT breakable on startup, so if you go from opener to linker, 1st frame mashers will 100% of the time get an orange lockout), so I don’t think it actually adds anything to the strategy.
I’ve had a lot to say on this topic over the last year or so I’ve been involved with KI… I think guess breaking in general is a bad idea for the defense because the game is so incredibly punishing for it (and IMO tournament results have proven this to be true), but it also exists and has its place in moderation; because breaking is so hard to do consistently on reaction, guess breaks are needed to survive in this game sometimes. Some people try to avoid guess breakers by keeping combos short… others try to make combos long so that lockouts are as damaging as possible and mix in some counter breakers (IMO this is the most sound strategy because it maximizes your return on your opponent’s unfavorable guess), others try to do as many unbreakables as possible (always a good idea if you can spare the resources)… there are lots of different approaches and we see many different styles emerge.
I’m probably just rambling now so I’ll stop. I just want people to think about why guessing is necessary in fighting games, and why KI’s breaker system is designed as best as possible to punish guessers without making every opening a guaranteed 50% damage either. It’s a delicate give-and-take ecosystem and I think KI handles it pretty well, even if it’s easy to get salty when short-term variance allows a worse player to break more combos than he should for half of a match.