First let me preface this thread by stating that I like the combo breaker and counter breaker system. I’m not one of those people who feel like players are not rewarded enough for winning neutral. I think players get plenty of guaranteed damage.
What my intent with this post is to address Bass’s statement in LCD’s podcast that guess breaking is at an all time high and the risk vs. reward is a little off.
Frankly I agree, but for slightly different reasons. By design combo breaking has the inherent risk that you could be counter-broken which will reset KVM and lock the player out. That certainly imposes a risk. But against true guessing how great is that risk? Lets look at it further. If I miss my counter breaker I’m massively negative and am open for a Combo punish. So as the counter breaker in a standard combo open - attack - link - attack - end. There are 3 parts of my combo that they can break on, against true guessing even if we forget about the frame window a counter breaker must be input before a combo breaker that still leaves me with a 33% chance of landing my counter and a 66% chance of giving them a combo punish. In reality this is even worse because of the precise frames a counter needs to be performed on.
So now say I’m the combo breaker player who is guessing. What is my risk outside of the chance I’ll be counter-broken which we’ve already seen is a pretty massive risk for the counter-breaker player. Well the obvious is the lockout. But what is the risk of the lock out. Well two things, First my opponent gets to min/max their damage during that time they can use heavy autos as well as shadow linkers to pump more damage into their combo. But lets dig deeper into those. As the offense is using a shadow linker worth it, I’d personally argue that with a lot of the characters it absolutely is not worth using a bar of shadow as a linker in combo, in doing so with many characters you lose a way in which to make some offense safe, to shadow counter and to open people up with a punish or a mixup. In my opinion the increased damage you get by using a shadow linker is often not as valuable as many of those other opttions. So what you’re left with is some nice meaty heavy Auto’s to punish a lockout. And here is where the crux of the issue lies. The damage from that punishment is not significant enough to deter players from guess breaking. The reward they get from combo breaking (preventing ender damage, and removing potential damage as well as resetting neutral) is greater than the risk of the damage they take from getting locked out.
I believe that a reduction in damage scaling during a lockout to increase the overall damage during a lockout could act as a stronger deterrent to guess breaking. I’m fairly certain for this to be true as an extreme example of this is if you get locked out during a RAAM instinct combo, a primary situation of where I will only guess break if it’s my only option to prevent death other wise I only break on reaction.
TLDR; Counter Breaking is unwise vs. guess breaking. Guess Combo Breaking is too low risk. Increasing the damage the offense gets during a lockout could enhance that risk. I apologize for being so verbose but I wanted to make sure people understood where I’m coming from. Let me also say this is simply my opinion, there are many variables I left out and ignored (player conditioning, etc.) and I do not claim this opinion to be universally accepted among the community.