there is a thread where either Infil of Baneimous (I think) tested this in the lab and came up with an answer…its somewhere’s around here.
Linkers aren’t breakable until they actually hit, so the game already knows if you’re holding the button down long before the breaker window appears.
Since you can hold the lights as well to get a heavy linker, it would be a 50% chance. But I am pretty sure the linker strength is already determined by the time it becomes breakable. So breaking early is still a 33% chance.